This time of year it's common to hear the phrase "there is a lot of volleyball left"! This is true, of course, as SFA has five conference matches remaining and then several more to determine whether our fate is the NCAA Tournament for the fifth time in seven calendar years or a date in the NIVC. But, when you consider our three juniors - of whom this post is about - they too have a lot of volleyball left despite all these newcomers just getting their collegiate careers started.
A lot has been made of all the SFA freshman and for good reason. Katherine Holtman will be in the Southland Conference Freshman of the Year conversation in just a few more weeks. Natalie Guerrero and Brooklyn Shelton have each seen plenty of time at libero. Sophia Wilson started out as the second setter before yielding to redshirt freshman Cambry Saul. Harley Krause should continue to get opportunities and has drawn the praise of coaches in recent weeks. Kennedy Jones has been a solid contributor since cracking the starting lineup - especially in floor defense. Molly Cravens has shown flashes while holding down the second right side role. Jordan Henderson got in two sets and contributed last night in New Orleans and Autumn Jordan is waiting in wings while being a strong presence on challenge teams in practice. That's nine freshmen and one redshirt freshman that have been at the center of a successful 2024 season to this point.
But, with no slight to Sophomores Kyanna Creecy, Caroline Kahle and Ty Joseph, this post is about projecting where our Juniors, who have now played roughly two-thirds of their SFA careers, might wind up statistically. Let's look at each of Camryn Hill, Bella Ortiz and Jayden Flynn briefly in terms of just what sort of statistical milestones may very well lie ahead in all of this "volleyball that's left to play":
JR OH Camryn Hill
For Hill, the milestone chase is that of 1000 digs and she should actually get there quite easily. With 547 career kills, hitting 1000 career kills won't happen, but digs is a totally different story. Currently, Hill has 788 in her career and at her current pace, she projects to finish this season with 353. Interestingly enough, that's right in line with her 2023 season when she scooped 352. So, that's one thing to watch - will Hill set a career high for digs in a season here in 2024? At any rate, the totals between '23 and '24 should be relatively close. A total of 353 would put her at 881 going into her senior season which you can see makes getting to 1000 purely a matter of good health.
Another season like the previous two brings her career projected dig mark to well over 1000 - I calculate it at 1234. So, Hill should join the 1000 dig club at SFA without amassing enough to crack the Top 10 list all-time. That would take getting to 1459 which appears out of reach. Still a career that posts between 850 and 900 career kills and over 1200 career digs would be more than a solid set of contributions. More than likely, Hill won't be a record book entry on the career page, but she's already well on her way to being remembered as a very solid all around six rotation outside.
Given Hill's projected numbers, the 1000 dig club should be a big celebration point about a third of the way into the 2025 season.
Projections: 1234 digs, 899 kills
JR MB Izabella Ortiz
Now this is really, really interesting. I think given Bella's current pace we are going to see a race to 1000 kills and 500 blocks at this time next year. And its going to be CLOSE on both accounts - again, health willing. The only other player in SFA history to have 1000 kills AND 500 blocks is the revered Aubrey Duncan who played here from 1991 to 1994 (before my time). So, Bella at least has a chance at doing something statistically that no one has done in thirty years.
Let's take a look at just how close this could be: First, the kills side of things. Bella currently has 693 kills and at her current pace I've got her projected to finish the season at 301. That would put her at 771 kills going into her senior season. At 2.50 kills per set, a rate she has been able to hold this year we can project a 110 set senior season to add on 275 more kills for a grand total projection of 1,046 career kills. Obviously, that makes getting to 1000 within the realm of possibility, but no where near the same likelihood as Hill getting to 1000 digs. At Ortiz' sophomore rate of 2.20 kills per set, the projection works out to 1,013. So, health is the key, because at the current production rate Ortiz should be close to the 1000 kill mark very late in the 2025 season.
Now, 500 blocks would be a truly magnificent total, because again, Duncan is the only person in SFA history to get to that milestone as she leads the Ladyjacks all-time with 569. Bella has 81 blocks this season and at her current rate of right at one block per set, she'd be expected to finish with a season tally of 111. That would land her at 372 going into her senior season. Assuming her current career rate of 1.09 blocks per set for 110 more senior sets gets you to a career projection of....492. Ortiz' shot at 500 career blocks may very well wind up depending upon how deep SFA plays in the postseason during her final two years - this year and next. Of course, Ortiz already has a 151 block season under her belt. If the 372 block total going into her last year is near accurate, another 150 puts her cleanly above 500 at a career total of between 520 and 525.
So, the elusive 1000 kill and 500 block tally is a possibility, but we will probably be talking about a statistical chase that comes right down to the wire if she stays healthy for the next year. Ortiz' 151 blocks in 2023 already has her a record book entry at 7th best all time. This year, she has entered the Top 10 all-time match attack percentages leaderboard twice with an .818 effort at UTRGV and her .800 attack percentage at New Orleans. She projects to easily land in the Top 10 all-time at SFA in both total blocks and solo blocks and could finish anywhere from 2nd to 10th on those lists. My bet is that she finishes 2nd all time in total blocks and either 2nd or 3rd in solos. She's also got a chance at the all-time attack percentage mark for a career held by Kristy Rhodes at .342. Ortiz' career hitting percentage as of this writing is .346. Making the Top 10 list all-time for attack percentage should be a cinch, but maintaining hitting in the .340's or above is a tall order for another year and one-third. But again, she's done it to this point.
All in all, her place in the record books points to Ortiz very well going down as statistically one of the top five middle blockers to ever come to SFA. You might be able to even argue she'll finish as one of the top two or three best players at that position to ever wear purple. I'm not quite sure that people realize just how many entries Ortiz may have in the all-time SFA record book and I have to admit - her potential career totals are the main impetus for writing this post. She is truly on an elite arc.
Projections: 1,046 career kills, 492 career blocks (2nd all time), .342 career attack % (1st all time)
JR S Jayden Flynn
For Flynn the most interesting category is total aces, because as a 6-2 setter there's a natural boundary on the record books list for assists that she won't be able to cross. JJ Jones ('04-'07) leads the way with 5191 career assists. Then, comes a setter before my time in Bianca Aranda ('95-'98) at 5155. Then, the second best (to Jones) setter I've ever seen at SFA is third on the assists lists and that's Marissa Dorcheus ('98-'01) with 5,060. Fourth is Wendy Walling ('90-'93) with 4,666 and then Paige Holland ('11-'14) - who was SFA's last truly dominant 5-1 setter with 4,488. Those five ladies represent the five truly outstanding setters running one-setter offenses in SFA volleyball history. Sixth on the all-time assist list is Ann Hollas ('16-'19) who we often used in a modified 6-2 alignment that allowed her to hit from the right side while front row.
Flynn' assists per set numbers through her career have been amazingly stable right at 6.10 assists per set. That's the number I'll use to project that she'll finish this year with 694. That would put her at 2,039 going into her senior season. It seems just like yesterday that Flynn got to 1,500 career assists and then shortly thereafter got onto the Top 10 career assists list. Just last week she passed up Sunni Williams ('99-'02) for 9th all-time. Another season at 6.10 assists per set for 110 sets would get her career grand total to 2,710. That would allow her to pass former teammate and mentor Maddy Bourque ('20-'24) and also Terri Sherrill ('91-'94) and finish 7th all-time in assists at SFA. Of course, this would technically be SECOND all-time at SFA for a 6-2 setter and if you want to get picky.... FIRST all-time at SFA for a pure 6-2 setter.
Now, about those aces. A career clip of 0.39 aces per set extrapolates out to a total of 46 for this season and 133 going into her last year. The 0.39 per set rate over 110 more sets as a senior lands her career projection at 176. That would put her 5th all-time at SFA in total aces and also fifth all time in aces per set. Quite literally, Jayden is probably the best overall server SFA has seen in 20 years. Again, health permitting, Flynn should be in the all-time SFA record books in three categories and for as long as SFA continues to prefer 6-2 offenses she will probably be remembered as one of the best 6-2 setters all-time here in Nacogdoches. Behind Aranda and Walling, she'll probably have the third most aces ever in Ladyjack history as a setter. Maybe while not a top five overall setter in team history, she looks to me to be in the five to ten range and that's enough of a statistical resume to be long remembered and well thought of deep into the future.
Projections: 2,710 career assists (7th all time) 176 career aces (5th all time), 0.39 aces per set (5th all time)