'Jacks Youth Represents Well

 Hammond, La. -- SFA Volleyball was bounced from the 2024 Southland Conference Tournament earlier today, but a roster that began the season as the youngest among the Division 1 ranks represented the program well.  SFA had nine primary players on the floor for each of the two contests here in Louisiana and six of them were freshman.  Of the final three, two were second year athletes and of course, the last being junior setter Jayden Flynn.  With the loss today, SFA stands at 23-8 and will have to wait late into the night on Sunday, December 1 for their NIVC fate.

If Southeastern Louisiana wins the tournament championship tomorrow, then SFA is the NIVC automatic qualifier for the Southland by way of finishing in second place in the regular season standings.  Even if Texas A&M - Corpus Christi were to win tomorrow, it is likely that SFA would be placed in the NIVC field, so the real issue is if we'll get to have bonus volleyball in Shelton Gym as one of the 8 host sites for the first two rounds.  Toward that point, SFA has hosted before in 2021 and would seem to have a least a coin flip chance at gaining that honor again.  But, we'll have one very long week before we see the NIVC bracket revealed because that does not happen until the NCAA Tournament matchups are completely set.

Personally, I felt like there were four individual performances that stood out to me over the two days effort and I'll highlight them here:

Kyanna Creecy probably played the most consistent of any Ladyjack across the two matches.  She hit .439 (22-4-41) and blocked nine balls in our nine sets.  Her kill per set tally of 2.44 was above her normal season output.  If I had a vote, she'd be our all-tournament representative for her consistency.  She and Katherine Holtman were the only two Ladyjacks with double figure kills in both games and Ky hit .600 on Friday and .346 on Saturday.

Jayden Flynn had one of the best matches I've seen her play this year on Friday during the quarterfinals against HCU.  I thought her decision making in that particular match was outstanding as she racked up 34 assists.  All together, Flynn posted 59 assists (6.46 a/s) and also tallied 27 digs equivalent to an even 3.00 digs/set.  Both the assist and dig per set numbers were above her season norms.  She also passed the 2000 career assist plateau in the win against the Huskies.

Kennedy Jones had seven blocks in the semifinal loss against Texas A&M - Corpus Christi.  As far as moments where one athlete "took over", Jones gets that nod for us with three of her blocks all close together in time during a middle set against the Islanders.  All told, Kennedy tallied 23 kills (.191, 2.56 k/s) and blocked 10 balls in nine sets to lead SFA in blocks per set for the tournament.  She's been a steady contributor in her starting role the back half of 2024.

Last, but not least, what about Harley Krause?  Krause has done some great things in her limited action throughout the year, but with Camryn Hill out and Humphreys shifting Cravens to the middle, Krause filled the vacant slot like a pro here this weekend in her FIRST collegiate starts.  Her Friday match was astounding: 17 kills, hitting .412.  Combined, she got 23 total kills, hit .263 for the tournament and chipped in two aces, three blocks and 12 digs.  She had the University Center buzzing as I answered "who dat?" questions all afternoon after she burst onto the scene.

Again, I think Creecy was our most steady performer over all, but Krause's game 1 and Jones' block party in game 2 were more than memorable.  Flynn looked like an absolute ace at times in the first matchup as well.  Worth throwing in are the facts that Kathrine Holtman's 26 kills led the team despite a few more errors than normal for her and Natalie Guerrero was solid with 4.56 digs per set across the two days. Sophia Wilson served up two aces against HCU and handed out 42 assists (4.67 a/s).

Time to start our lobbying, hoping, praying, encouraging and what ever other-ing we can for an NIVC host site!  It would only seem fitting for the home crowd to get a chance to honor this super young squad a few more times in Shelton Gym before the semester ends.

As of this writing, SFA's Futures RPI rank is 80.  That will change up or down across the week as more matches are played around the country.  But, however you slice it, having an RPI among the top quarter of all NCAA Division 1 programs when you are finishing your year with an active roster consisting of only one upperclassman is quite an accomplishment.

As always, I'm proud to rep SFA Volleyball. It has only happened to me a few times, but it is ALWAYS tough to watch the coaches and team go while I stay at a conference tournament.  But, I have a job to do, and I have this opportunity because of them and because of the SFA Volleyball family.  They have represented SFA well - I can only try and follow.

Watch the final between #2 seed Texas A&M - Corpus Christi and #1 seed host Southeastern Louisiana at 3:00 PM CT on Sunday.  Tyler Thomas (SLU PxP) and yours truly will be on the headsets for the final on ESPN+.

Comments and Philosophies Regarding the Official All-SLC Lists

 It is always a wonderful day when the All-Conference teams get announced. We get to see all of the cool graphics that the creative content divisions come up with to honor athletes at their school.  My social media pages get flooded with pictures of the honorees and lists of their superlatives.  I love scrolling through and seeing all the recognition.  Through my years at SFA, I've been able to be physically present several times when our coaching staff has informed our players of their honors.  That's always a really special moment to see their faces light up and the team cheer for them in the gym or on the bus or in a meeting room.

This year the official lists were released while I was driving my super duper rental car somewhere across I-10 headed for Hammond.  Once I got to my hotel here in the host city, the first thing I did after checking in and unpacking was gaze at the official all-conference lists.

Let's dive in and compare the Official Southland Conference All- SLC lists to those that I posted yesterday morning before the official announcements.

In general there are a lot of similarities.  Indeed, the conference and I agree on 11 of the 14 players honored on the first team and 16 of 21 players honored overall.  That doesn't leave a large space of room for difference of opinions, but there are a few things worth mentioning I feel.  Some of the points being made here are philosophical on my end and they are things that I repeat pretty much every year.  There are just certain methods and philosophies that I have adopted that not all coaches and SID's will incorporate in the same way.  

That isn't to say that my way is "right" and others' ways are "wrong".  I don't think that is my place to argue anymore.  I really value statistical analysis is making my choices.  After all, my real job is in the mathematical sciences and that's what I truly do for a living.  I am literally paid to analyze data, teach people how to analyze data and solve problems with data.

So, the numbers are always going to be primary.  Not everyone is numerically driven and so that's a philosophical difference in player evaluation.  To that end, that's why I always use ALL relevant data and I firmly believe that you should use FULL season stats in making these picks.  That's my first premise:

• Data should not be omitted from analysis unless it is irrelevant.  Non-conference data is not irrelevant.  Using it can help you identify player progression and trends.  It can help you determine which players have found and lost roles.  It's information about the quality of the player and your goal should be to pick the best players.  The argument against this is strength of schedule differences across the 12 teams.  My counterargument to that is very simple:  You shouldn't vote if you aren't willing to be intentional about adjusting for such.  To simply say that we will throw a dozen matches of statistics out of our consideration for every player to make it "even" is actually the lazy way out.  Use all the data.  Make your adjustments.  Invest in reasonable ways to adjust for differing non-conference schedules.

Next, and this is a continual point that I make about these lists:  We should genuinely desire to honor outstanding athletes on teams that have poor records or did not qualify for the SLC Tournament.  Sure, the top 8 teams should populate the vast majority of the lists.  However, I have found that far too often the bottom four or five teams in the conference get completely shut out from any honor at all despite these teams often having a player worth mention.  I personally believe this happened again this year and that's unfortunate.

Third, and this is also a repeated point from year to year.  When we have athletes that are among the NATIONAL leaders in traditional statistics associated with their position, they should receive strong consideration for these lists.  Cases in point:

• India Bennett of SLU is 8th in the nation in blocks per set and 14th in total blocks.  She leads the SLC in blocks per set at 1.49.  To me, that is worthy of a 1st team honor.  Now, for full disclosure, I am guilty of the very point I am making concerning Alex Hoglund, the setter for Texas A&M - Corpus Christi.  Hoglund is 8th in the nation in assists per set.  Bennett was on the official 2nd team.  Hoglund was on my personal second team.  Now, I'll be honest, I put more stock in blocks/set as a statistic for MB's than I do assists per set for setters.  But again, I'm trying to be perfectly fair in pointing out what could have been my own oversight.

• Jade Smith, the libero for East Texas A&M, has amassed 5.40 digs per set.  East Texas A&M's team and player ranks do not populate on the NCAA D1 Volleyball website due to the program not being fully transitioned (yet) and not eligible for NCAA post-season play.  However, Smith's value would rank her 5th in the nation.  Again, I fully understand that the measure of a libero is not exclusively in one metric.  That has been pointed out to me many times.  I get it.  However, I'd argue that we make ourselves look - at a minimum out of touch - and at a maximum foolish when we ignore players completely that are on national leaderboards.  Also, please don't cite me opponent/schedule issues in this case.  East Texas A&M played all of East Carolina, TCU, UCLA, Houston and Ole Miss prior to conference play.  That's more than a respectable schedule. They played three Top 50 RPI matches which is as many as SLU and SFA did. Their strength of schedule at FigStats ranks 5th in the SLC.  Smith put up her numbers against quality teams for a full season.  It isn't right to COMPLETELY ignore her on all-conference lists.  We need to be more aware of national leaders from our conference.

Despite the above philosophical disconnects between the way that I WOULD vote and the way that the voters ACTUALLY vote, remember that there was still agreement on 16 of 21 athletes.  So finally, let me again champion the several cases where I saw things different.  

I will not argue against an actual honoree in open writing such as this.  I've done that before and I think I should admit it is not productive and possibly could undermine my intent.  Now, in conversation, I would respectfully tell anyone that would listen why I believe certain players should or should not be on lists.  After all, I'm just giving my own opinion and interpretation of player value.  No one has to agree with me.  I've been at this too long to have that hurt my feelings.  But, it is right to be respectful of the OFFICAL honored athletes.  The point is to celebrate great play.  I'm always on board with that.  That said, here's my second attempt at casting some light on a few players left off official lists:

• Alexis Logarbo of SLU is one of the top right side hitters in the conference in my opinion.  She was third among all RS's in attack percentage and led all in total blocks with 77.  If you want to argue that Logarbo gets a lot of block assists because she closes with SLU's middles, then why are we not honoring SLU's middles?  That seems like a circular argument to me.  I'll be bold enough to say that I think only SFA's Katherine Holtman has had a clearly better performance at right side across the conference.  There are some RS's that had better kill and kill per set numbers than Logarbo (e.g., De Assis, Allison [S/RS]), but those players had attack percentages and block numbers significantly worse than Logarbo.  It works both ways.

• As you might expect, I like my 2nd team more than the official lists.  I've already argued for Smith and SLU's middles and implicitly I've argued for Castro and Benjamin as being snubbed for their team rather than their numbers.  The Tillman and Zech (I'm actually a big Zech fan) picks I am OK with because they made my "just missed" list.

• For what it's worth, I was dead on with my statement in the original post about the player most likely to be included on the official lists that I left off.  Again, I just respectfully, believe that we should expect the highest honored middle BLOCKERS to have statistically significant blocking statistics.

• I believe the voters got it exactly right regarding SFA.  Of course, that's the team I know best and where my loyalty will always lie.  That said, a team that goes undefeated in conference play and wins 24 matches in a row deserves more than one player on the first team.  Especially when we are honoring 14 players on the first team.  Frankly, I think that is difficult to justify under any philosophical difference of player evaluation.  

• Last year in the WAC, the two top teams were SFA and Grand Canyon.  Each of those teams had three players among the top 16 vote getters.  I'm willing to think I should have reconsidered on Hoglund at AMCC.  Maybe I made a mistake there. Fair enough.  However, I'd have been really disappointed last season if Ielan Bradley won WAC player of the Year and she was our only first team honoree among the Top 14. If Logarbo gets on a list and one of Bennett/McKelvey slides up, then this is all more plateable.  Above, I've made my case for that being Bennett.

Still, overall, there was a lot of agreement and lots to celebrate!  We should keep the focus on that aspect of all this as we await our four first round matches on Friday!  Today is such a cool day and I can't wait to see these women get their awards.

Next up in this space... more honoring players!  I'll have a post up in the next day or so about my favorite non-SFA players around the league.  Announcers develop favorites as they watch all the opponents play their school.  So, I'll list a few of my favorite players from around the Southland Conference since I'm a fan of the entire conference too in spite of working for SFA full time during the season.

12th Annual (Resurrected!) SFA VolleyBlog All-SLC Teams

 Change is Good

Last year when I published the "2nd Annual SFA VolleyBlog All-WAC Teams" I wrote that readers could check on my method of team construction in the "11th and final rendition of my Southland All-Conference picks".  Times change and that is evidenced by Stephen F. Austin's return to the SLC and also my decision to dovetail this post into one that mimics the conference structure for the first time.

This is the 14th year I have done this exercise and I have made repeated arguments for creating actual teams.  Typically, I would pick a first, second and third team that each had minimum positional requirements so that, for instance, the "first team" was actually a playable team on the court.  I've tried to make justifications for why I thought this is best in the past and I still believe in those arguments.  However, through the years I've seen just how many different ways this can be done and how virtually every method has its pros and cons.

So, like SFA coming back to the Southland, I've decided to change.  Adaptability is a skill.  I'm willing to change.  

Similarities and Differences to How the Conference Makes Official Lists

Let me explain the similarities and differences in my methods and those that you will see that generate the official lists later in the week:

First, coaches nominate a list of players.  I find this totally unnecessary and this is one place where I have chosen not to yield.  What this means is that the pool of players that can receive official votes is dictated entirely by the coaches themselves.  Sorry, coaches... that's too much power and it can occasionally be abused. I say the player universe that we can choose from should be all rosters on all teams. 

That's basically the only main difference in how these picks will be made, because now what happens is that the coaches rank 21 players from the submitted nominees and the votes are tallied up. The top 14 vote getters receive first team honor and the next seven are awarded second team.  A coach cannot vote for their own players.  From these votes the top vote getter at freshman, setter, libero, and newcomer are determined and given those special awards.  A coach of the year is chosen and of course, the top vote getter overall is the player of the year.  Each school submits one list which is meant to be a representation of both that school's coach and sports information director.

I'll make a 14/7 pair of lists like mentioned above and I'll also throw in a few "just missed" athletes because honoring players is good and I wish that the conference had an "honorable mention" section Below is a disclaimer section (this is important), my lists, a statistical breakdown of "stat pros" and "stat lows" and then my overall methodology for full transparency.

The "stat pros/lows" is something that I started while doing this in the WAC because when people would ask me why I made certain choices I was almost always answering those questions with something from this section.  So, I decided to just start publishing those statistical rankings to aid people with getting in my head about these things.

As the folks here at SFA can testify, I keep spreadsheets of data on every starting player in the conference on my laptop that I use while I call matches.  Those spreadsheets include statistical rankings for every key player in the conference and how they compare to other players at their respective positions.

Disclaimer Section!

(Yes, I need this.  My history in the Southland dictates this is necessary) This post was published BEFORE the official All-SLC teams were announced by the conference.  I do this independently and DO NOT discuss my picks with coaches or representatives from the institutions beforehand (including SFA!!. Believe it or not, but years ago I got accused once or twice of actually influencing the voters because I would publish the lists before the coaches turned their rankings in.  I found that claim absurd, but started publishing the list the day or two before the league announced the real winners so that the voting would be over or ending.  

I have called on ESPN+ or on radio a match involving every team in the league this year.  I have personally called and/or watched each team in the league play entire matches multiple times.  Based on what I do for a living, statistical analysis weighs HEAVY in making my picks.  But, I've been calling collegiate volleyball for a decade now and so the "eyeball" test is in here too.  But just know.. numbers/stats are what will always drive me. 

2024 SFA VolleyBlog 1st Team All-SLC (14 players)

Cicily Hidalgo, Southeastern La. (OH, SR, Player of the Year)

Kyndal Payne, Texas A&M - Corpus Christi (OH, SR)

Audrey Pearce, HCU (MB, SR)

Kyanna Creecy, SFA (MB, SO)

India Bennett, Southeastern La. (MB, R-SO)

Izabella Ortiz, SFA (MB, JR)

McKenzie Moore, McNeese (OH, SR)

Katherine Holtman, SFA (RS, FR, Freshman of the Year)

Isabella Constantini, UTRGV (S, SO, Setter of the Year)

Claudia Lupescu, UTRGV (OH, SR)

Calissa Allison, UIW (S/RS, FR)

Alexis Logarbo, Southeastern La. (RS, JR)

Illana De Assis, UTRGV (RS, SR)

Kyra McElvey, Southeastern La. (RS, SO)

Stat Pros:

Hidgalgo: Only OH in top three by position in all of k/s, k, att%, blocks, d/s aces

Payne: Among OH, 2nd in k/s and att%, 3rd in k, 4th in d/s

Pearce: one of only two MB in top five in all of b/s, bl, k/s, k, att%

Creecy: one of only two MB in top five of all of b/s, bl, k/s, k, att%

Bennett: top MB in conference in b/s, bl and 4th in att%

Ortiz: 2nd among MB in att%, 3rd in k/s and k at position

Moore: top OH in conference in k and k/s

Holtman: only RS in conference in top 3 in all of k/s, k, att%, blocks at position

Constantini: one of only three S in top half at position in all of assists/set, assists, aces, d/s

Lupescu: 3rd at position in aces, 4th in k, 5th in k/s

Allison: truly unique as S/RS, 4th among RS in k/s, k, 450+ assists, triple double leader

Logarbo: top RS in total block, third at position in att%, sixth in k

De Assis: top RS in k and k/s, sixth in att% at position

McElvey: top RS in att%, 5th in k/s

Stat Lows:

Lupescu:  Not Top 10 at position in blocks or dig/set

De Assis:  Not Top 10 at position in blocks

2024 SFA VolleyBlog 2nd Team All-SLC (7 players)

Leah Linares Castro, Nicholls (RS, JR, Newcomer of the Year)

Alex Hoglund, Texas A&M - Corpus Christi (S, GR)

Maja Malinowska, Lamar (OH, FR)

Deja Benjamin, Northwestern St. (MB, JR)

Celianiz Cabranes, UTRGV (L, SO, Libero of the Year)

Keira Beverly, Southeastern La. (MB, R-FR)

Jade Smith, East Texas A&M (L, SR)

Coach of the Year:  Jeremy White, Southeastern La.

Stat Pros:

Castro: 2nd at position in k/s and k, 5th in att%, sixth in blocks

Hoglund: led conference in assists (1000+), 2nd in assists/s

Malinowska: 4th among OH in k/s, 5th in k, tied for 5th in d/s

Benjamin: 2nd among MB in b/s, 3rd in bl

Cabranes: one of only three L to be in top half at position in d, d/s, ace

Beverly: 5th at position in b/s, Top 10 at position in all of bl, k/s, k, att%

Smith:  5th in nation in d/s, only 500+ dig in conference

Stat Lows:

Malinowska: Not Top 10 at position in att%, bl

Benjamin: Not Top 10 at position in k/s, k

The following were under consideration for the final spots:  Nadine Zech, UTRGV (OH, SO), Kade Thomas, UIW (MB, JR), Grace McLaughlin, HCU (S, JR), Bailey Tilman, McNeese (L, SR).

Quick Thoughts:

• Originally had Allison as Freshman of Year, but Holtman's "Stat Pro" list flipped me by an inch.  Gotta be one of these two.
• Logarbo's stats surprised me.  Not someone I originally thought would make this list.
• McKelvey is a personal favorite.  I'll write a post about players like this soon.
• Thought there were a lot of average liberos w/ basically none really as standouts.
• We need to honor strong players on non-tournament teams (Castro, Benjamin)
• Jade Smith is among the national leaders in the defining stat for her position.  The conference should recognize such.  Actually fine with her as Libero of Year if chosen.
• It's a struggle to compare 5-1, 6-2 setters. (i.e., Gonzalez, Baumert vs. Flynn, Duplechein, Richardson)
• Player Most Likely to Make Official List Not Appearing Here: Leah Stolfus, TAMUCC or someone like Tilman from my "just missed".

Finally, Methodology

OH: 40% related to kill stats, 25% related to hitting percentage/efficiency, 25% defense stats, 10% serving stats with adjustments made for 6 vs. 3 rotation usage and observation

RS: 70% offense with half of that related to hitting percentage/efficiency, 30% blocking with slight adjustments made for observation

MB: 60% blocking metrics, 40% offense with half of that related to hitting percentage/efficiency with slight adjustments made for observation

S: assist metrics as they relate to 5-1 vs. 6-2 usage, serving, slight consideration of dig/set, significant adjustments for observation, no fixed percentage breakdown like OH, RS, MB

L: dig/set, serving, significant adjustments for observation, no fixed percentage breakdown like OH, RS, MB.

"Observation" includes all of the following:  notes taken while calling matches, conversations with coaches during year, appearance of leadership and demeanor while on court and on bench while watching/calling matches, decision making, interactions with teammates.  All of these things are considered but would not move a particular player up or down more than one or two "slots" within position based on objective statistical measures.

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Junior Achievement

 This time of year it's common to hear the phrase "there is a lot of volleyball left"!  This is true, of course, as SFA has five conference matches remaining and then several more to determine whether our fate is the NCAA Tournament for the fifth time in seven calendar years or a date in the NIVC.  But, when you consider our three juniors - of whom this post is about - they too have a lot of volleyball left despite all these newcomers just getting their collegiate careers started.

A lot has been made of all the SFA freshman and for good reason.  Katherine Holtman will be in the Southland Conference Freshman of the Year conversation in just a few more weeks. Natalie Guerrero and Brooklyn Shelton have each seen plenty of time at libero.  Sophia Wilson started out as the second setter before yielding to redshirt freshman Cambry Saul.  Harley Krause should continue to get opportunities and has drawn the praise of coaches in recent weeks.  Kennedy Jones has been a solid contributor since cracking the starting lineup - especially in floor defense.  Molly Cravens has shown flashes while holding down the second right side role. Jordan Henderson got in two sets and contributed last night in New Orleans and Autumn Jordan is waiting in wings while being a strong presence on challenge teams in practice.  That's nine freshmen and one redshirt freshman that have been at the center of a successful 2024 season to this point.

But, with no slight to Sophomores Kyanna Creecy, Caroline Kahle and Ty Joseph, this post is about projecting where our Juniors, who have now played roughly two-thirds of their SFA careers, might wind up statistically. Let's look at each of Camryn Hill, Bella Ortiz and Jayden Flynn briefly in terms of just what sort of statistical milestones may very well lie ahead in all of this "volleyball that's left to play":

JR OH Camryn Hill

For Hill, the milestone chase is that of 1000 digs and she should actually get there quite easily. With 547 career kills, hitting 1000 career kills won't happen, but digs is a totally different story.  Currently, Hill has 788 in her career and at her current pace, she projects to finish this season with 353.   Interestingly enough, that's right in line with her 2023 season when she scooped 352.  So, that's one thing to watch - will Hill set a career high for digs in a season here in 2024?  At any rate, the totals between '23 and '24 should be relatively close.  A total of 353 would put her at 881 going into her senior season which you can see makes getting to 1000 purely a matter of good health.  

Another season like the previous two brings her career projected dig mark to well over 1000 - I calculate it at 1234.  So, Hill should join the 1000 dig club at SFA without amassing enough to crack the Top 10 list all-time.  That would take getting to 1459 which appears out of reach. Still a career that posts between 850 and 900 career kills and over 1200 career digs would be more than a solid set of contributions.  More than likely, Hill won't be a record book entry on the career page, but she's already well on her way to being remembered as a very solid all around six rotation outside.

Given Hill's projected numbers, the 1000 dig club should be a big celebration point about a third of the way into the 2025 season.

Projections:  1234 digs, 899 kills

JR MB Izabella Ortiz

Now this is really, really interesting.  I think given Bella's current pace we are going to see a race to 1000 kills and 500 blocks at this time next year.  And its going to be CLOSE on both accounts - again, health willing. The only other player in SFA history to have 1000 kills AND 500 blocks is the revered Aubrey Duncan who played here from 1991 to 1994 (before my time).  So, Bella at least has a chance at doing something statistically that no one has done in thirty years.

Let's take a look at just how close this could be:  First, the kills side of things.  Bella currently has 693 kills and at her current pace I've got her projected to finish the season at 301.  That would put her at 771 kills going into her senior season.  At 2.50 kills per set, a rate she has been able to hold this year we can project a 110 set senior season to add on 275 more kills for a grand total projection of 1,046 career kills.  Obviously, that makes getting to 1000 within the realm of possibility, but no where near the same likelihood as Hill getting to 1000 digs.  At Ortiz' sophomore rate of 2.20 kills per set, the projection works out to 1,013.  So, health is the key, because at the current production rate Ortiz should be close to the 1000 kill mark very late in the 2025 season.

Now, 500 blocks would be a truly magnificent total, because again, Duncan is the only person in SFA history to get to that milestone as she leads the Ladyjacks all-time with 569.  Bella has 81 blocks this season and at her current rate of right at one block per set, she'd be expected to finish with a season tally of 111.  That would land her at 372 going into her senior season.  Assuming her current career rate of 1.09 blocks per set for 110 more senior sets gets you to a career projection of....492.  Ortiz' shot at 500 career blocks may very well wind up depending upon how deep SFA plays in the postseason during her final two years - this year and next.  Of course, Ortiz already has a 151 block season under her belt.  If the 372 block total going into her last year is near accurate, another 150 puts her cleanly above 500 at a career total of between 520 and 525.

So, the elusive 1000 kill and 500 block tally is a possibility, but we will probably be talking about a statistical chase that comes right down to the wire if she stays healthy for the next year.  Ortiz' 151 blocks in 2023 already has her a record book entry at 7th best all time.  This year, she has entered the Top 10 all-time match attack percentages leaderboard twice with an .818 effort at UTRGV and her .800 attack percentage at New Orleans.  She projects to easily land in the Top 10 all-time at SFA in both total blocks and solo blocks and could finish anywhere from 2nd to 10th on those lists.  My bet is that she finishes 2nd all time in total blocks and either 2nd or 3rd in solos.  She's also got a chance at the all-time attack percentage mark for a career held by Kristy Rhodes at .342.  Ortiz' career hitting percentage as of this writing is .346.  Making the Top 10 list all-time for attack percentage should be a cinch, but maintaining hitting in the .340's or above is a tall order for another year and one-third.  But again, she's done it to this point.  

All in all, her place in the record books points to Ortiz very well going down as statistically one of the top five middle blockers to ever come to SFA.  You might be able to even argue she'll finish as one of the top two or three best players at that position to ever wear purple.  I'm not quite sure that people realize just how many entries Ortiz may have in the all-time SFA record book and I have to admit - her potential career totals are the main impetus for writing this post.  She is truly on an elite arc.

Projections: 1,046 career kills, 492 career blocks (2nd all time), .342 career attack % (1st all time)

JR S Jayden Flynn

For Flynn the most interesting category is total aces, because as a 6-2 setter there's a natural boundary on the record books list for assists that she won't be able to cross. JJ Jones ('04-'07) leads the way with 5191 career assists.  Then, comes a setter before my time in Bianca Aranda ('95-'98) at 5155.  Then, the second best (to Jones) setter I've ever seen at SFA is third on the assists lists and that's Marissa Dorcheus ('98-'01) with 5,060.  Fourth is Wendy Walling ('90-'93) with 4,666 and then Paige Holland ('11-'14) - who was SFA's last truly dominant 5-1 setter with 4,488.  Those five ladies represent the five truly outstanding setters running one-setter offenses in SFA volleyball history.  Sixth on the all-time assist list is Ann Hollas ('16-'19) who we often used in a modified 6-2 alignment that allowed her to hit from the right side while front row.

Flynn' assists per set numbers through her career have been amazingly stable right at 6.10 assists per set.  That's the number I'll use to project that she'll finish this year with 694.  That would put her at 2,039 going into her senior season.  It seems just like yesterday that Flynn got to 1,500 career assists and then shortly thereafter got onto the Top 10 career assists list.  Just last week she passed up Sunni Williams ('99-'02) for 9th all-time.  Another season at 6.10 assists per set for 110 sets would get her career grand total to 2,710.  That would allow her to pass former teammate and mentor Maddy Bourque ('20-'24) and also Terri Sherrill ('91-'94) and finish 7th all-time in assists at SFA.  Of course, this would technically be SECOND all-time at SFA for a 6-2 setter and if you want to get picky.... FIRST all-time at SFA for a pure 6-2 setter.

Now, about those aces.  A career clip of 0.39 aces per set extrapolates out to a total of 46 for this season and 133 going into her last year.  The 0.39 per set rate over 110 more sets as a senior lands her career projection at 176. That would put her 5th all-time at SFA in total aces and also fifth all time in aces per set.  Quite literally, Jayden is probably the best overall server SFA has seen in 20 years.  Again, health permitting, Flynn should be in the all-time SFA record books in three categories and for as long as SFA continues to prefer 6-2 offenses she will probably be remembered as one of the best 6-2 setters all-time here in Nacogdoches.  Behind Aranda and Walling, she'll probably have the third most aces ever in Ladyjack history as a setter.  Maybe while not a top five overall setter in team history, she looks to me to be in the five to ten range and that's enough of a statistical resume to be long remembered and well thought of deep into the future.

Projections: 2,710 career assists (7th all time) 176 career aces (5th all time), 0.39 aces per set (5th all time)

Holtman, Ortiz & Humphreys Shine in Alamo City Win

 This team has a lot of young players.  How about that for stating the obvious at the first of an article?  What isn’t so obvious is which young players will shine or even which young players will be on the floor from night to night.  At setter, we’ve seen veteran Jayden Flynn have counterpart freshman Sophia Wilson at times and at others it has been redshirt freshman Cambry Saul.  At libero, freshman Natalie Guerrero started out fast but then gave way to fellow freshman Brooklyn Shelton.  As of late, we’ve seen a hybridization of the two as Guerrero has often been the “serving libero” and Shelton the “receiving libero”.  Such back and forth has been one technique teams (including ours) have used now that the libero rules have expanded.  Sophomore Caroline Kahle, an excellent server, passer and defender, has sat recently in favor of the potential of more offense in freshman Kennedy Jones.  From week to week, whichever combination of these players is producing is the lineup we see rolled out there on game day.  The end result is that it has worked.  SFA is 14-5 and other than a blip in Oklahoma and a tough loss to Southeastern Louisiana in El Paso, the ‘Jacks have been excellent despite the youth and the mixing and matching.

One freshman that has been a constant and really the head of the class so far is right side Katherine Holtman. Kat enters this week as the team’s second leading scorer and tied for first in kills having tallied 171 terminations.  Her efficiency has continued to improve as she now has her attack percentage all the way up to .316.  That’s good for Top 10 in the Southland Conference.  From Day 1, Katherine was inserted as one of the club’s two right side attackers. Other than having to sit because of having a penchant for getting hit in the head with the ball – and having to follow mild concussion protocols – she’s been in there ever since.  She absolutely toyed with the UIW block last Saturday racking up kill after monster kill.  When it was all done, Holtman had thrown down 20 kills on .385 hitting and mixed in five blocks and five digs to boot. 

Holtman is unbelievably deceiving.  I am still trying to figure out where all this power is coming from given her tall and wiry frame.  But one thing is for sure:  she is technically sound and can spray the ball all over the back row zones.  One of the most impressive attacks I’ve seen all year long – from any player – was a kill Kat had against Texas A&M Corpus Christi where she was facing the “one zone” with her body as she jumped, but swung inside out and pounded the line corner in the “five zone”.  It was an unbelievable display of body control to swing against her momentum while also showcasing that she had full vision of the floor to know that spot was open.  It’s one thing to think about making that shot in the moment.  Holtman executed it to perfection.  So far, the freshman MVP is obvious – Holtman has been a revelation.

As the match last Saturday wore on, it wasn’t just Holtman that was leading the way.  When things got rough going into Set 4 after UIW had cut our set lead in half, junior middle blocker Bella Ortiz tried to put the whole team on her back and carry us to victory.  Part of the game plan that was discussed in advance of the UIW match was to have the ‘Jacks setters force the middle attack in transition.  Flynn and Saul did that with both Ortiz and fellow middle blocker Kyanna Creecy to near perfection.  Ortiz was flat out dominant in the latter sets against the Cardinals.  Several times Ortiz’ attacks literally knocked Cardinal back row players down or left them staggering – the ball flying off their shoulders or in one case forehead.  It was an intimidating and powerful display.

I love what Ortiz has done and what she has become these last three years.  She asks questions and she studies opponents well.  She sets goals for herself match by match and checks on them every week.  She rises when the team needs a leader to take over.  After her numbers lagged just a bit early on during the season, all of her marks now are in line or exceed her career standards.  With Holtman, she is tied for the team lead in kills.  She is back to blocking over a ball per set and even more impressively, her attack percentage is now above .330 where a month ago it was sitting in the mid .200’s.

While calling the match on Saturday, I could almost feel Ortiz’ aggression from way up at the top of the McDermott Center in my little broadcast “perch”.  No one in purple and white wanted to lose that match.  Bella Ortiz would have HATED to have lost that match – and you could feel it all during Sets 4 and 5.  Ortiz blew past her previous career high in kills and matched Holtman with 20 coupled with four blocks and an ace – just barely topping the freshman with 23.5 total points scored in the match.  Ortiz is better now physically and mentally than at any point previously in her career.  I’ve witnessed the mental strength and smarts while on the road in study/film sessions a lot more this year.  I’m beyond impressed and the rest of conference should be scared stiff.

But, as much as Holtman and Ortiz played well last Saturday it was the brilliance of head coach Debbie Humphreys midway through the match that really deserves the most mention.  Humphreys put on an absolute masterclass session of how to utilize her teams’ strengths to solve immediate problems at the end of Set 3 and into Set 4.

Freshman libero Shelton struggled to pass against UIW.  It’s going to happen.  Again, minus Holtman, pretty much every freshman on the club has had moments where they haven’t been all there.  Brooklyn has played well during late September and October and has been steady enough to carve out a decent amount of playing time as of late.  But last Saturday was not her day.  SFA’s liberos have been serving to start rotation three.  At the time of the move about to be discussed the serving order was Flynn (S), Hill (OH), Libero, Saul (S), Jones (OH), Ortiz (serving MB).  With the ‘Jacks struggling to pass in Set 3 they found themselves down 11-17.  Something needed to be done.  The momentum had seriously shifted and for the first time all day, the modest UIW home crowd had piped up a bit.

After a Holtman kill brought the set score to 12-17, Humphreys subbed Kahle straight for non-serving middle Creecy.  Kahle was effectively the second middle blocker at that point.  But, liberos don’t HAVE to serve, so Kahle served in the third slot upon entering  because Hill was our most recent server. The move was brilliant – and it almost ended the match in three sets.  A Jones kill, a UIW error, and two kills from the Ortiz machine made it 16-17 before Kahle’s own service error ended the rally.  Kahle now rightfully stays on the floor to play defense but since she is in for Creecy, she can be replaced by the libero.  This allows Humphreys to still use one back row player in serve receive (Kahle) and another while we are serving (Guerrero). To me, that’s the genius in this move.  It effectively allows Kahle to function as a libero while formally being in the middle blocker back row spot.

Saul and Jones take their turns serving while Kahle’s spot is back row and by the time when UIW gets a side out on Jones we are still within one at 19-20.  Kahle is now one spot from coming front row and UIW had their own serving specialist Victoria Hall coming back into the match.  The teams traded points and SFA was again down just one at 20-21 when the Creecy/Kahle/libero spot comes front row and Creecy returns. Soon after, Humphreys sends in Harley Krause for Molly Cravens.  All of this is happening as we moved to rotation six – just one spot away from our best server Flynn coming to the line late in the set.  Krause immediately makes an impact with a block assist paired with Creecy and we were tied at 21.  At that point, UIW rattles off three straight points before Flynn tried to bring us all the way back from behind the service line.  We fell short losing Set 3 by the minimum two points, 23-25.

Despite losing that third set, enough happened with Kahle serving and playing back row to make the next Humphreys’ move far more predictable.  She had effectively used her substitution patterns to create the ability for Kahle to function as a libero in place of Shelton.  So, to start Set 4, such a thought becomes a formality as Kahle has now donned a libero jersey and Shelton has changed back into a traditional white jersey like the rest of her teammates.  Humphreys submits the lineup card for Set 4 with Guerrero and Kahle listed as the liberos.  It still takes SFA an extra set to get it done, but the Ladyjacks play the remaining two sets with Guerrero and Kahle tag teaming at the libero spot.  Kahle continues to serve and came to the line with an ace late in Set 4 to tie the set at 24-24.  Unfortunately, we couldn’t get it done as the set ended with one of the UIW liberos, Audrey Patton, serving up an ace for a Cardinal set win.

Amidst all the back row scheming remember that Krause had subbed for Cravens.  Krause stayed in the match for sets four and five getting a total of four kills on six swings and two blocks.  Not bad for limited action in a tight match.

So, we know Holtman and Ortiz presence is solidified going forward.  But now coming out of a match where Humphreys put on a clinic regarding how to use bench pieces, liberos and substitutions what will it mean for THIS week?  What will it mean for the match against New Orleans and maybe more importantly, what will it mean for the rematch against Southeastern Louisiana?  Suddenly there are many questions and combinations that SFA could flow in and out of during the week:

·         Does Krause temporarily give Cravens a breather at the second right side slot?

·         Does Kahle function as formal libero going forward pairing with Guerrero?

·         Do we go back to Guerrero full time at libero (which happened some in the UIW match) and have Kahle ready if Guerrero needs a partner in that spot?

·         We really haven’t mentioned Cambry Saul in all this.  But it would appear that she has earned the second setter position for now.  She had 22 assists (career high) and seven digs vs. UIW.  So, it would seem Saul would stay in the starting rotation.  Will that hold?

·         Do the liberos serve or not going forward?

Some of these questions are related of course, but they are just some of the many things that make this week so interesting.  While we can’t look past anyone, it is clear that our opponents this week are of different strengths.  Does the fact that we play New Orleans first give Humphreys the chance to get a little more extended look at Krause again and Kahle in a different role?

One last thought before I end this and just ramp up my anticipation of seeing how this plays out:  What about Kahle just taking the libero position outright?  THAT hasn’t been tried yet during the Fall.  But, when I think back to the off-season, Kahle was the sensible choice to fill the libero role with who we had left from 2023.  Coming into this season, it was either going to be a new player (freshman) at libero or Kahle.  The team wanted to try Kahle as a six-rotation outside hitter.  For that matter, Kahle theoretically could return to that role, but for now Kennedy Jones has continued to earn court time.  So, I’m just throwing it out there – don’t 100% completely rule out Kahle just becoming a libero for a short – or a long – amount of time.

Whatever happens it’s clear that Holtman’s emergence, Ortiz dominance and support from steady contributors like Flynn and Camryn Hill have us well positioned in the standings.  What should we do with all the other moving parts? 

Well, NOW we are back to obvious:  Trust Humphreys to figure it out.

Caroline Kahle Interview now Available on YouTube

 Got a chance to have a SUPER conversation with Sophomore OH Caroline Kahle tonight and I just love how she answered my half dozen questions or so.  Today on the bus ride over to Huntsville, I tried to be as intentional as I could with chatting individually with all the players working my way in conversation from the back of the bus to the front.  A few were sacked out in a nap and so I didn't get to talk with all of them, but I'll catch them at breakfast or around the lobby of the hotel.  A lot of relationships have to be forged and trust built as we all begin travelling together.

The Kahle interview was followed up with a chat with Jayden Flynn - you'll see that I have my #InLikeFlynn T-shirt rocking for both of the sessions.  The Flynn interview will go up on Friday night.  I'll also announce it in this space.

For now, enjoy the incredible chat with Caroline and I hope to see many of our fans in Huntsville this weekend for our three matches.

One thing to note:  NONE OF THE MATCHES ARE ON TV.  Originally, it was thought that the Sam Houston / SFA match on Saturday afternoon would be on ESPN+, but Sam Houston is NOT broadcasting it.  So, the radio here at the blog is the ONLY media for all three of our matches this weekend.

Here's the link to my chat with Kahle: Interview with Caroline Kahle on August 29

Preseason Chat with Head Coach Debbie Humphreys

 I've been able to check out practice a few times in this past week leading up to the scrimmage at Noon on Saturday, August 24.  I'll have a season preview up in this space next week and we'll also begin talking to some of the veterans in advance of next weekends' tournament matches in Huntsville.  For now, my plan is to chat with Jayden Flynn and Caroline Kahle at some point before making that trip.  To get us started in this space for 2024, check out these 10 minutes with Coach Humphreys.  Our focus is discussing the process of making a schedule of matches, building a practice routine centered around our large contingent of new freshman and communicating with young players about opportunities for playing time.

I look forward to getting a rare shot back on public address for the scrimmage since there is no media and mainly and just super excited to be back in the gym and get a first true look at the 2024 squad in competition mode. Hope to see you Saturday in Shelton Gym at 12 PM.

Click the link above to head out to the blog's YouTube channel so that you can check out the chat.