About the Demons, that is.
I’m concerned about how we match up with Northwestern State. Before we get too far, I want to get some
basics out front in this article. First,
I am going to purport a theory that some folks reading this won’t buy
into. But, this won’t be the first time
that’s happened, so I’m not too worried about that. Second, those who are aware of my Demonic
Conversion – dismissing them in 2011 and then championing them in 2012, might
see this post as caving to the opposition or being afraid to criticize
Northwestern State given I had done so years ago. “Once bitten, Twice shy” some may say.
Nah. That’s not
it. I am genuinely worried about the
match up in Natchitoches on Saturday.
Here is where you will really think I have gone batty (appropriate
reference since I have witnessed bats flying around Prather Coliseum during
games):
Don’t look at any statistics when considering the matchup
between SFA and NSU.
What? The blogger who
constantly cites numbers to defend his position and by trade is a statistician
is now telling us to throw the numbers out the window?
Yep, ignore them.
They are meaningless.
Some will look at Northwestern State and see the following:
·
They are 6-8 and in their eight losses they have
only won two sets
·
Stud outside hitter Stacey DiFrancesco is hitting
only .062
·
Honorable Mention 2012 Setter Emily Sweet is no
longer on this team
·
Wins against Appalachian State (0-13 in their
conference last year), Prairie View A&M, New Orleans and SLU are
unimpressive
·
Lost 8 of first 9 and recent wins aren’t against
top talent
Fine. Whatever. Several times this year I have had people
(not SFA people) say to me “NSU is struggling this year. What gives?” I myself
have uttered these words without taking the time to really sit back and think
about the first half of the season at Northwestern State.
Here is what I am telling you, dear readers: None of the above bullets matter. None. Zero.
Northwestern State is a good volleyball team that is quite possibly just
as talented, if not more so, than SFA.
This is a scary matchup and I’ll admit to not being overly
confident. The SID’s picked this team to
finish third in the conference and the coaches picked them 5th. SFA’s rankings were flip-flopped from those.
Other than Sweet, all of the Demon’s key players return and
are one year older and more experienced.
NSU is very strong on the pins:
DiFrancesco and O’Connell on the left and Neely on the right are
collectively going to be hard to slow down.
Last year, we didn’t slow them down in Prather one bit. In a three set sweep, DiFrancesco (14), O’Connell
(12) and Neely (10) all had double-digit kills.
Are you kidding me? Where was the
defense at the net that night? Oh, that’s
right – I was there. I remember. The net defense didn’t show up. Give NSU
credit – they are a tough offense to slow down because of all those talented
hitters
Next, let’s talk about defense, specifically the libero
spot. Do not be surprised at all if
Keelie Arneson wins Libero of the Year for the Southland Conference in
2013. In fact, folks like me who love
back row defense may be in for a treat during this match. The two SLC liberos leading the conference in
digs per set will be on opposite sides of the net. But again, throw statistics
out. I used to not be that big of a
believer in Arneson, but I kept watching her.
I kept talking to people about her and have finally – like a lot of
things NSU Volleyball – have come around slowly to the idea that she is an
elite defender. I thought she was the
third best libero in the conference last year behind Silva (ORU) and our Maddie
Hanlan. Arneson certainly hasn’t done
anything to lessen her stock during 2013.
So, NSU has excellent pin hitters, a stellar libero, and so
where does that leave us? Well, with the
two keys to the match, in my opinion:
the play of the middles and the setters.
The first of these is where SFA will have to excel to win the
match. Jacque Allen, Justice Walker, and Les Jackson
are more athletic and should be able to provide more offense than the NSU trio
of Glynna Johnson, Vanessa Coleman and Amanda Kunz. The issue, however, is defense. Can Allen and Walker close blocks with the
right side pin blocker on O’Connell and DiFrancesco? Can Bates and Granger pair up with the MB’s
to slow down Neely on the right? I
genuinely worry about this. Allen and
Walker can put up 20 kills between them, but will DiFrancesco, O’Connell and Neely
counter that with 40 of their own? That’s
my problem. If setter Emily Johnson can
distribute the ball and keep our front line guessing and turn this match into
an offense vs. offense match, then NSU can win it. SFA’s net defense MUST come up big to
frustrate the NSU attackers and get Emily Johnson thinking twice.
Now we have it out there: Emily Johnson. 5’6”, pretty much a reserve DS last year has
become the starting setter due to Sweet’s absence. Well, pretty much. Freshman setter Natalie Jaeger has also
played alongside Johnson in two-setter format for many matches. The last two matches have been all Johnson
and unless there is an injury I am not aware of, I have to wonder why? To me, NSU seems like a perfect team to be
running a 6-2, but that’s just an observation from afar. I have no inside information about this
situation at all, but I am not going to be shocked at all if NSU runs a
two-setter offense against us. Jaeger
hasn’t seen the floor in the last two matches, so maybe there is something
going on. I don’t know? But at any rate, NSU using both provided they
are healthy makes perfect sense to me.
I’m sure that Emily Johnson is a great person. I’ve never spoken to her in my life. So, this is nothing personal at all. I like setters that are really tall, very
athletic, and contribute to blocking and attacking while also distributing the
ball. Johnson is none of these
things. But now, to my theory that I alluded
to in the opening paragraph:
Emily Johnson at setter as opposed to Emily Sweet doesn’t
matter as much as you think. In fact, I
don’t think Johnson vs. Sweet is the issue at all.
And with that.. my
conjectures:
1) If you can’t pass, it doesn’t matter how good your
setters and attackers are.
2) If you can’t attack, it doesn’t matter how good your
passes and sets are.
3) However, if you can pass and you have talented attackers,
then all you need is adequacy at setter and you can still win.
The first of these I expect to get no argument on. It is a fundamental principle of
volleyball. The second of these I expect
to get minimal critique on. Somebody has
to kill the ball and be able to score. It
is conjecture 3) that I think applies to NSU and where people may very well
disagree.
But I say, all Johnson (or Jaeger, for that matter) has to
do is just distribute the ball in an adequate fashion. Yes, the setter is the quarterback. Yes, the setter is usually a captain. Yes, a good setter can pick apart
defenses. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I get it.
I know that a good setter can made an average hitter appear better than she really is. But that counter-argument to my theory doesn’t apply here. NSU doesn’t have average hitters. They have excellent hitters.
Yes, this Demon team might have been built for Emily Sweet
to lead and yes, Sweet is almost without argument a more talented setter than
Emily Johnson. I say, that doesn’t
matter.
Pick one of these to lose if you are a Demon fan:
·
DiFrancesco and O’Connell
·
Arneson and whatever DS you want to put beside
her
·
Emily Sweet
My conjecture is this:
outstanding passing and outstanding hitting can smooth over “meh”
setting more than
1) Outstanding hitting and outstanding setting can smooth
over “meh” passing. (If you pass
terrible, your setter can’t distribute the ball, you can’t run all your hitters
and you stink. We all know this.)
or
2) Outstanding passing and outstanding setting can smooth
over “meh” attackers. (I think this IS possible, but have you ever watched an
attacker try the same shot over and over and over again despite what the block
is giving them? It’s painful to watch.)
Emily Johnson and/or Natalie Jaeger just have to avoid
playing terrible. NSU has a lot of
players around them to buoy up the overall ship.
OK, agree or disagree?
That’s for you to contemplate.
Where does this leave us overall?
If SFA’s middle blockers contribute on both sides of the net
in very meaningful ways, then the ‘Jacks should get redemption for last years’
Demon sweep in Natchitoches.
If the pin hitters for NSU go unchecked and/or NSU’s
setting gets the pins and the middles all actively contributing on
offense? Then don’t look at me. I’ll just politely tell you “I told you so”
as we quietly exit the airplane hangar about 3:30 PM.
This is not an easy matchup.
SFA will need to play a complete match at a high level to win. We need these tests. I see Saturday as the biggest one to date in
2013.
Oh, and finally.. that DiFrancesco hitting percentage? There are reasons she has been out of
pocket. You had better throw that number
out with the trash. It’s meaningless,
because she is back in the groove. And
as far as the 6-8 record? There are 330
NCAA DI volleyball teams. Their eight
losses are to teams whose collective average RPI last year was 101. That’s the upper 1/3 of all NCAA programs as
an AVERAGE. They’ve played Arkansas
(32), Baylor (62) and Utah (82), who were all Top 100 programs last year.
The winner of this match can count their victory as a “quality
win”. I honestly believe SFA has reached
the toughest stretch of their pre-conference tournament schedule. After NSU, the next two are at ORU and at
UCA. Whether the ‘Jacks are a first tier
or second tier team heading into the conference tournament may very well begin
to be defined in the next seven days.
We didn’t lay down with the Lions – one of our stumbling
blocks during the regular season last year.
Tomorrow we find out if an axe is useful for exorcisms.
Axe’ Em! LIVE CHAT for the match kicks off at 1:45 PM right here.