'Jacks Youth Represents Well

 Hammond, La. -- SFA Volleyball was bounced from the 2024 Southland Conference Tournament earlier today, but a roster that began the season as the youngest among the Division 1 ranks represented the program well.  SFA had nine primary players on the floor for each of the two contests here in Louisiana and six of them were freshman.  Of the final three, two were second year athletes and of course, the last being junior setter Jayden Flynn.  With the loss today, SFA stands at 23-8 and will have to wait late into the night on Sunday, December 1 for their NIVC fate.

If Southeastern Louisiana wins the tournament championship tomorrow, then SFA is the NIVC automatic qualifier for the Southland by way of finishing in second place in the regular season standings.  Even if Texas A&M - Corpus Christi were to win tomorrow, it is likely that SFA would be placed in the NIVC field, so the real issue is if we'll get to have bonus volleyball in Shelton Gym as one of the 8 host sites for the first two rounds.  Toward that point, SFA has hosted before in 2021 and would seem to have a least a coin flip chance at gaining that honor again.  But, we'll have one very long week before we see the NIVC bracket revealed because that does not happen until the NCAA Tournament matchups are completely set.

Personally, I felt like there were four individual performances that stood out to me over the two days effort and I'll highlight them here:

Kyanna Creecy probably played the most consistent of any Ladyjack across the two matches.  She hit .439 (22-4-41) and blocked nine balls in our nine sets.  Her kill per set tally of 2.44 was above her normal season output.  If I had a vote, she'd be our all-tournament representative for her consistency.  She and Katherine Holtman were the only two Ladyjacks with double figure kills in both games and Ky hit .600 on Friday and .346 on Saturday.

Jayden Flynn had one of the best matches I've seen her play this year on Friday during the quarterfinals against HCU.  I thought her decision making in that particular match was outstanding as she racked up 34 assists.  All together, Flynn posted 59 assists (6.46 a/s) and also tallied 27 digs equivalent to an even 3.00 digs/set.  Both the assist and dig per set numbers were above her season norms.  She also passed the 2000 career assist plateau in the win against the Huskies.

Kennedy Jones had seven blocks in the semifinal loss against Texas A&M - Corpus Christi.  As far as moments where one athlete "took over", Jones gets that nod for us with three of her blocks all close together in time during a middle set against the Islanders.  All told, Kennedy tallied 23 kills (.191, 2.56 k/s) and blocked 10 balls in nine sets to lead SFA in blocks per set for the tournament.  She's been a steady contributor in her starting role the back half of 2024.

Last, but not least, what about Harley Krause?  Krause has done some great things in her limited action throughout the year, but with Camryn Hill out and Humphreys shifting Cravens to the middle, Krause filled the vacant slot like a pro here this weekend in her FIRST collegiate starts.  Her Friday match was astounding: 17 kills, hitting .412.  Combined, she got 23 total kills, hit .263 for the tournament and chipped in two aces, three blocks and 12 digs.  She had the University Center buzzing as I answered "who dat?" questions all afternoon after she burst onto the scene.

Again, I think Creecy was our most steady performer over all, but Krause's game 1 and Jones' block party in game 2 were more than memorable.  Flynn looked like an absolute ace at times in the first matchup as well.  Worth throwing in are the facts that Kathrine Holtman's 26 kills led the team despite a few more errors than normal for her and Natalie Guerrero was solid with 4.56 digs per set across the two days. Sophia Wilson served up two aces against HCU and handed out 42 assists (4.67 a/s).

Time to start our lobbying, hoping, praying, encouraging and what ever other-ing we can for an NIVC host site!  It would only seem fitting for the home crowd to get a chance to honor this super young squad a few more times in Shelton Gym before the semester ends.

As of this writing, SFA's Futures RPI rank is 80.  That will change up or down across the week as more matches are played around the country.  But, however you slice it, having an RPI among the top quarter of all NCAA Division 1 programs when you are finishing your year with an active roster consisting of only one upperclassman is quite an accomplishment.

As always, I'm proud to rep SFA Volleyball. It has only happened to me a few times, but it is ALWAYS tough to watch the coaches and team go while I stay at a conference tournament.  But, I have a job to do, and I have this opportunity because of them and because of the SFA Volleyball family.  They have represented SFA well - I can only try and follow.

Watch the final between #2 seed Texas A&M - Corpus Christi and #1 seed host Southeastern Louisiana at 3:00 PM CT on Sunday.  Tyler Thomas (SLU PxP) and yours truly will be on the headsets for the final on ESPN+.

Comments and Philosophies Regarding the Official All-SLC Lists

 It is always a wonderful day when the All-Conference teams get announced. We get to see all of the cool graphics that the creative content divisions come up with to honor athletes at their school.  My social media pages get flooded with pictures of the honorees and lists of their superlatives.  I love scrolling through and seeing all the recognition.  Through my years at SFA, I've been able to be physically present several times when our coaching staff has informed our players of their honors.  That's always a really special moment to see their faces light up and the team cheer for them in the gym or on the bus or in a meeting room.

This year the official lists were released while I was driving my super duper rental car somewhere across I-10 headed for Hammond.  Once I got to my hotel here in the host city, the first thing I did after checking in and unpacking was gaze at the official all-conference lists.

Let's dive in and compare the Official Southland Conference All- SLC lists to those that I posted yesterday morning before the official announcements.

In general there are a lot of similarities.  Indeed, the conference and I agree on 11 of the 14 players honored on the first team and 16 of 21 players honored overall.  That doesn't leave a large space of room for difference of opinions, but there are a few things worth mentioning I feel.  Some of the points being made here are philosophical on my end and they are things that I repeat pretty much every year.  There are just certain methods and philosophies that I have adopted that not all coaches and SID's will incorporate in the same way.  

That isn't to say that my way is "right" and others' ways are "wrong".  I don't think that is my place to argue anymore.  I really value statistical analysis is making my choices.  After all, my real job is in the mathematical sciences and that's what I truly do for a living.  I am literally paid to analyze data, teach people how to analyze data and solve problems with data.

So, the numbers are always going to be primary.  Not everyone is numerically driven and so that's a philosophical difference in player evaluation.  To that end, that's why I always use ALL relevant data and I firmly believe that you should use FULL season stats in making these picks.  That's my first premise:

• Data should not be omitted from analysis unless it is irrelevant.  Non-conference data is not irrelevant.  Using it can help you identify player progression and trends.  It can help you determine which players have found and lost roles.  It's information about the quality of the player and your goal should be to pick the best players.  The argument against this is strength of schedule differences across the 12 teams.  My counterargument to that is very simple:  You shouldn't vote if you aren't willing to be intentional about adjusting for such.  To simply say that we will throw a dozen matches of statistics out of our consideration for every player to make it "even" is actually the lazy way out.  Use all the data.  Make your adjustments.  Invest in reasonable ways to adjust for differing non-conference schedules.

Next, and this is a continual point that I make about these lists:  We should genuinely desire to honor outstanding athletes on teams that have poor records or did not qualify for the SLC Tournament.  Sure, the top 8 teams should populate the vast majority of the lists.  However, I have found that far too often the bottom four or five teams in the conference get completely shut out from any honor at all despite these teams often having a player worth mention.  I personally believe this happened again this year and that's unfortunate.

Third, and this is also a repeated point from year to year.  When we have athletes that are among the NATIONAL leaders in traditional statistics associated with their position, they should receive strong consideration for these lists.  Cases in point:

• India Bennett of SLU is 8th in the nation in blocks per set and 14th in total blocks.  She leads the SLC in blocks per set at 1.49.  To me, that is worthy of a 1st team honor.  Now, for full disclosure, I am guilty of the very point I am making concerning Alex Hoglund, the setter for Texas A&M - Corpus Christi.  Hoglund is 8th in the nation in assists per set.  Bennett was on the official 2nd team.  Hoglund was on my personal second team.  Now, I'll be honest, I put more stock in blocks/set as a statistic for MB's than I do assists per set for setters.  But again, I'm trying to be perfectly fair in pointing out what could have been my own oversight.

• Jade Smith, the libero for East Texas A&M, has amassed 5.40 digs per set.  East Texas A&M's team and player ranks do not populate on the NCAA D1 Volleyball website due to the program not being fully transitioned (yet) and not eligible for NCAA post-season play.  However, Smith's value would rank her 5th in the nation.  Again, I fully understand that the measure of a libero is not exclusively in one metric.  That has been pointed out to me many times.  I get it.  However, I'd argue that we make ourselves look - at a minimum out of touch - and at a maximum foolish when we ignore players completely that are on national leaderboards.  Also, please don't cite me opponent/schedule issues in this case.  East Texas A&M played all of East Carolina, TCU, UCLA, Houston and Ole Miss prior to conference play.  That's more than a respectable schedule. They played three Top 50 RPI matches which is as many as SLU and SFA did. Their strength of schedule at FigStats ranks 5th in the SLC.  Smith put up her numbers against quality teams for a full season.  It isn't right to COMPLETELY ignore her on all-conference lists.  We need to be more aware of national leaders from our conference.

Despite the above philosophical disconnects between the way that I WOULD vote and the way that the voters ACTUALLY vote, remember that there was still agreement on 16 of 21 athletes.  So finally, let me again champion the several cases where I saw things different.  

I will not argue against an actual honoree in open writing such as this.  I've done that before and I think I should admit it is not productive and possibly could undermine my intent.  Now, in conversation, I would respectfully tell anyone that would listen why I believe certain players should or should not be on lists.  After all, I'm just giving my own opinion and interpretation of player value.  No one has to agree with me.  I've been at this too long to have that hurt my feelings.  But, it is right to be respectful of the OFFICAL honored athletes.  The point is to celebrate great play.  I'm always on board with that.  That said, here's my second attempt at casting some light on a few players left off official lists:

• Alexis Logarbo of SLU is one of the top right side hitters in the conference in my opinion.  She was third among all RS's in attack percentage and led all in total blocks with 77.  If you want to argue that Logarbo gets a lot of block assists because she closes with SLU's middles, then why are we not honoring SLU's middles?  That seems like a circular argument to me.  I'll be bold enough to say that I think only SFA's Katherine Holtman has had a clearly better performance at right side across the conference.  There are some RS's that had better kill and kill per set numbers than Logarbo (e.g., De Assis, Allison [S/RS]), but those players had attack percentages and block numbers significantly worse than Logarbo.  It works both ways.

• As you might expect, I like my 2nd team more than the official lists.  I've already argued for Smith and SLU's middles and implicitly I've argued for Castro and Benjamin as being snubbed for their team rather than their numbers.  The Tillman and Zech (I'm actually a big Zech fan) picks I am OK with because they made my "just missed" list.

• For what it's worth, I was dead on with my statement in the original post about the player most likely to be included on the official lists that I left off.  Again, I just respectfully, believe that we should expect the highest honored middle BLOCKERS to have statistically significant blocking statistics.

• I believe the voters got it exactly right regarding SFA.  Of course, that's the team I know best and where my loyalty will always lie.  That said, a team that goes undefeated in conference play and wins 24 matches in a row deserves more than one player on the first team.  Especially when we are honoring 14 players on the first team.  Frankly, I think that is difficult to justify under any philosophical difference of player evaluation.  

• Last year in the WAC, the two top teams were SFA and Grand Canyon.  Each of those teams had three players among the top 16 vote getters.  I'm willing to think I should have reconsidered on Hoglund at AMCC.  Maybe I made a mistake there. Fair enough.  However, I'd have been really disappointed last season if Ielan Bradley won WAC player of the Year and she was our only first team honoree among the Top 14. If Logarbo gets on a list and one of Bennett/McKelvey slides up, then this is all more plateable.  Above, I've made my case for that being Bennett.

Still, overall, there was a lot of agreement and lots to celebrate!  We should keep the focus on that aspect of all this as we await our four first round matches on Friday!  Today is such a cool day and I can't wait to see these women get their awards.

Next up in this space... more honoring players!  I'll have a post up in the next day or so about my favorite non-SFA players around the league.  Announcers develop favorites as they watch all the opponents play their school.  So, I'll list a few of my favorite players from around the Southland Conference since I'm a fan of the entire conference too in spite of working for SFA full time during the season.

12th Annual (Resurrected!) SFA VolleyBlog All-SLC Teams

 Change is Good

Last year when I published the "2nd Annual SFA VolleyBlog All-WAC Teams" I wrote that readers could check on my method of team construction in the "11th and final rendition of my Southland All-Conference picks".  Times change and that is evidenced by Stephen F. Austin's return to the SLC and also my decision to dovetail this post into one that mimics the conference structure for the first time.

This is the 14th year I have done this exercise and I have made repeated arguments for creating actual teams.  Typically, I would pick a first, second and third team that each had minimum positional requirements so that, for instance, the "first team" was actually a playable team on the court.  I've tried to make justifications for why I thought this is best in the past and I still believe in those arguments.  However, through the years I've seen just how many different ways this can be done and how virtually every method has its pros and cons.

So, like SFA coming back to the Southland, I've decided to change.  Adaptability is a skill.  I'm willing to change.  

Similarities and Differences to How the Conference Makes Official Lists

Let me explain the similarities and differences in my methods and those that you will see that generate the official lists later in the week:

First, coaches nominate a list of players.  I find this totally unnecessary and this is one place where I have chosen not to yield.  What this means is that the pool of players that can receive official votes is dictated entirely by the coaches themselves.  Sorry, coaches... that's too much power and it can occasionally be abused. I say the player universe that we can choose from should be all rosters on all teams. 

That's basically the only main difference in how these picks will be made, because now what happens is that the coaches rank 21 players from the submitted nominees and the votes are tallied up. The top 14 vote getters receive first team honor and the next seven are awarded second team.  A coach cannot vote for their own players.  From these votes the top vote getter at freshman, setter, libero, and newcomer are determined and given those special awards.  A coach of the year is chosen and of course, the top vote getter overall is the player of the year.  Each school submits one list which is meant to be a representation of both that school's coach and sports information director.

I'll make a 14/7 pair of lists like mentioned above and I'll also throw in a few "just missed" athletes because honoring players is good and I wish that the conference had an "honorable mention" section Below is a disclaimer section (this is important), my lists, a statistical breakdown of "stat pros" and "stat lows" and then my overall methodology for full transparency.

The "stat pros/lows" is something that I started while doing this in the WAC because when people would ask me why I made certain choices I was almost always answering those questions with something from this section.  So, I decided to just start publishing those statistical rankings to aid people with getting in my head about these things.

As the folks here at SFA can testify, I keep spreadsheets of data on every starting player in the conference on my laptop that I use while I call matches.  Those spreadsheets include statistical rankings for every key player in the conference and how they compare to other players at their respective positions.

Disclaimer Section!

(Yes, I need this.  My history in the Southland dictates this is necessary) This post was published BEFORE the official All-SLC teams were announced by the conference.  I do this independently and DO NOT discuss my picks with coaches or representatives from the institutions beforehand (including SFA!!. Believe it or not, but years ago I got accused once or twice of actually influencing the voters because I would publish the lists before the coaches turned their rankings in.  I found that claim absurd, but started publishing the list the day or two before the league announced the real winners so that the voting would be over or ending.  

I have called on ESPN+ or on radio a match involving every team in the league this year.  I have personally called and/or watched each team in the league play entire matches multiple times.  Based on what I do for a living, statistical analysis weighs HEAVY in making my picks.  But, I've been calling collegiate volleyball for a decade now and so the "eyeball" test is in here too.  But just know.. numbers/stats are what will always drive me. 

2024 SFA VolleyBlog 1st Team All-SLC (14 players)

Cicily Hidalgo, Southeastern La. (OH, SR, Player of the Year)

Kyndal Payne, Texas A&M - Corpus Christi (OH, SR)

Audrey Pearce, HCU (MB, SR)

Kyanna Creecy, SFA (MB, SO)

India Bennett, Southeastern La. (MB, R-SO)

Izabella Ortiz, SFA (MB, JR)

McKenzie Moore, McNeese (OH, SR)

Katherine Holtman, SFA (RS, FR, Freshman of the Year)

Isabella Constantini, UTRGV (S, SO, Setter of the Year)

Claudia Lupescu, UTRGV (OH, SR)

Calissa Allison, UIW (S/RS, FR)

Alexis Logarbo, Southeastern La. (RS, JR)

Illana De Assis, UTRGV (RS, SR)

Kyra McElvey, Southeastern La. (RS, SO)

Stat Pros:

Hidgalgo: Only OH in top three by position in all of k/s, k, att%, blocks, d/s aces

Payne: Among OH, 2nd in k/s and att%, 3rd in k, 4th in d/s

Pearce: one of only two MB in top five in all of b/s, bl, k/s, k, att%

Creecy: one of only two MB in top five of all of b/s, bl, k/s, k, att%

Bennett: top MB in conference in b/s, bl and 4th in att%

Ortiz: 2nd among MB in att%, 3rd in k/s and k at position

Moore: top OH in conference in k and k/s

Holtman: only RS in conference in top 3 in all of k/s, k, att%, blocks at position

Constantini: one of only three S in top half at position in all of assists/set, assists, aces, d/s

Lupescu: 3rd at position in aces, 4th in k, 5th in k/s

Allison: truly unique as S/RS, 4th among RS in k/s, k, 450+ assists, triple double leader

Logarbo: top RS in total block, third at position in att%, sixth in k

De Assis: top RS in k and k/s, sixth in att% at position

McElvey: top RS in att%, 5th in k/s

Stat Lows:

Lupescu:  Not Top 10 at position in blocks or dig/set

De Assis:  Not Top 10 at position in blocks

2024 SFA VolleyBlog 2nd Team All-SLC (7 players)

Leah Linares Castro, Nicholls (RS, JR, Newcomer of the Year)

Alex Hoglund, Texas A&M - Corpus Christi (S, GR)

Maja Malinowska, Lamar (OH, FR)

Deja Benjamin, Northwestern St. (MB, JR)

Celianiz Cabranes, UTRGV (L, SO, Libero of the Year)

Keira Beverly, Southeastern La. (MB, R-FR)

Jade Smith, East Texas A&M (L, SR)

Coach of the Year:  Jeremy White, Southeastern La.

Stat Pros:

Castro: 2nd at position in k/s and k, 5th in att%, sixth in blocks

Hoglund: led conference in assists (1000+), 2nd in assists/s

Malinowska: 4th among OH in k/s, 5th in k, tied for 5th in d/s

Benjamin: 2nd among MB in b/s, 3rd in bl

Cabranes: one of only three L to be in top half at position in d, d/s, ace

Beverly: 5th at position in b/s, Top 10 at position in all of bl, k/s, k, att%

Smith:  5th in nation in d/s, only 500+ dig in conference

Stat Lows:

Malinowska: Not Top 10 at position in att%, bl

Benjamin: Not Top 10 at position in k/s, k

The following were under consideration for the final spots:  Nadine Zech, UTRGV (OH, SO), Kade Thomas, UIW (MB, JR), Grace McLaughlin, HCU (S, JR), Bailey Tilman, McNeese (L, SR).

Quick Thoughts:

• Originally had Allison as Freshman of Year, but Holtman's "Stat Pro" list flipped me by an inch.  Gotta be one of these two.
• Logarbo's stats surprised me.  Not someone I originally thought would make this list.
• McKelvey is a personal favorite.  I'll write a post about players like this soon.
• Thought there were a lot of average liberos w/ basically none really as standouts.
• We need to honor strong players on non-tournament teams (Castro, Benjamin)
• Jade Smith is among the national leaders in the defining stat for her position.  The conference should recognize such.  Actually fine with her as Libero of Year if chosen.
• It's a struggle to compare 5-1, 6-2 setters. (i.e., Gonzalez, Baumert vs. Flynn, Duplechein, Richardson)
• Player Most Likely to Make Official List Not Appearing Here: Leah Stolfus, TAMUCC or someone like Tilman from my "just missed".

Finally, Methodology

OH: 40% related to kill stats, 25% related to hitting percentage/efficiency, 25% defense stats, 10% serving stats with adjustments made for 6 vs. 3 rotation usage and observation

RS: 70% offense with half of that related to hitting percentage/efficiency, 30% blocking with slight adjustments made for observation

MB: 60% blocking metrics, 40% offense with half of that related to hitting percentage/efficiency with slight adjustments made for observation

S: assist metrics as they relate to 5-1 vs. 6-2 usage, serving, slight consideration of dig/set, significant adjustments for observation, no fixed percentage breakdown like OH, RS, MB

L: dig/set, serving, significant adjustments for observation, no fixed percentage breakdown like OH, RS, MB.

"Observation" includes all of the following:  notes taken while calling matches, conversations with coaches during year, appearance of leadership and demeanor while on court and on bench while watching/calling matches, decision making, interactions with teammates.  All of these things are considered but would not move a particular player up or down more than one or two "slots" within position based on objective statistical measures.

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